Mavs Player-By-Player Analysis: The Frontcourt

Mike Fisher -- DB.com

DIRK NOWITZKI

Strengths. Nowitzki’s focus, determination and will – all aspects of “toughness’’ – were on display last spring, when he was enduring the “Broken Cristal’’ issue and was good for almost 27 points per game on almost 52-percent shooting in the playoffs. He has invented an arsenal of ways to get off his shot – at 7-feet tall, it’s virtually impossible to block him – and that includes excellence from the arc and some low-post stuff that he’s worked on in recent years. (Though, notably, “the lost art of the mid-range shot’’ is not lost on Dirk; he’s almost taken for granted as a mid-range shooter.) The UberMan rarely takes a bad shot, is solid at passing over double-teams, will generally lead the team in rebounding, almost never commits a turnover (astounding, really, for a 7-footer who has the ball in his hands on most every possession and against the opponent’s top defender) and conducts himself as a model teammate, employee and leader.

Weaknesses. Dirk is one of the 10 greatest players in the world. … but you can’t have it all … so while his offense is almost unstoppable, his defense lags way behind. Dirk has that cute strip move on drivers (he can’t move his feet that quickly but he can move his hands!), but that’s really one of his few defensive tools. On offense, he tends to the pick-and-pop when you sometimes wish he’d roll. There are times when he “floats’’ through games when you wish he’d assert his will on the thing. And of course, when a good-and-long defender gets in his grill, Dirk is challenged when trying to drive around him.
The plan: Nowitzki will close games at the 5, a plan whose success depends on which end of the floor we’re talking about. There are no plans to limit his minutes, despite the fact that he’s into his 30’s now; maybe him sitting out international play this summer allows for more tread on his tires. Shawn Marion may end up taking away a few of his points, but those may be the result of Nowitzki assists. Nowitzki will be the centerpiece of this season and more to come, when after his exercises his summer-of-2010  opt-out, he returns to Dallas for one more pay day and many more heydays.
The quote. "I think we added some really nice pieces. I think we're all going to fit in well and mesh pretty well together." -- Dirk Nowitzki.

SHAWN MARION

Strengths. Marion is a match-up nightmare. He’s a better rebounder than all the 3’s. He’s a faster athlete than all the 4’s. He’s a more creative shooter and scorer than most defenders can keep up with. The four-time All-Star is unorthodox in many ways – personality and jump shot – but his quirkiness is what makes him great. Those release points benefit him greatly, especially now that he’s trained himself to ditch the 3-point launching and inside become an in-the-paint scorer. Everything he did in the Mavs’ preseason games was about slashing, cutting and dunking – an “easy-basket’’ feature that Dallas has long sorely missed. And on defense? He’s the first true “stopper’’this era of Dallas basketball has ever had who can also produce on the offensive end.

Weaknesses. Is Marion slipping? The numbers – from his halcyon days in Phoenix to his moments of drudgery in Miami and in Toronto – represent a steady decline. Marion and the Mavs argue that those numbers are “system-related’’; we obviously hope they’re right. At some point, of course, we’re going to see a dip in his trademark athleticism – but that wasn’t the case in the preseason, when he was nothing short of electric. … Marion developed a pouty reputation in previous stops, but there’s been no sign of that here. Maybe a $40-mil contract can do that to a guy, or maybe he’s on his best behavior right now.
The plan. That contract is actually a steal in regard to how much it generally costs for a player of this caliber (see Jefferson, Richard, and Carter, Vince.) He will likely be Dallas’ No. 2 guy in terms of minutes, maybe Dallas’ No. 2 guy in “pecking order’’ and quite possibly, night in and night out, Dallas’ second-best player.
The quote. "When you hear our guys talk about guys that have been difficult to play against, and were difference-makers in the West, Shawn’s one of the guys they talk about.'' -- Rick Carlisle.

DREW GOODEN

Strengths. Gooden is an offensive-minded interior player. He doesn’t back down from people. And he’s a little “off.’’ All three of those features are pretty foreign to this Mavs era, and are welcome additions. Gooden can rebound with the best of them (when he’s playing the 4), has some shooting range, and knows how to get to the line, where he shot 84 percent last season in his much-traveled campaign. As the starting center, he can give Dallas an all-five-guys-can-score look, reminiscent of what Nellie once tried to do with Raef LaFrentz – though hopefully Gooden stays nearer the paint to get his.
Weaknesses. When you play for this many teams, does it mean franchises do want you or that they don’t want you? Gooden has a reputation for forgetting or ignoring plays and for (to put it kindly) letting his “free-spiritedness’’ get in the way of his business. The biggest concern for now: Can he really battle the big centers (the “monsters,’’ as Carlisle calls them)? If not, can he really battle the athletic centers (say, Nene in Denver)? Detractors will suggest that Gooden is a defensive tweener at center who is destined to struggle against both styles.

The plan. Don’t lose sight of the financial plan here: Gooden signed what is officially being called a one-year, $4.5 million deal. But DB.com readers know that if this experiment doesn’t work, it can become a $1.9 mil deal before Jan. 10 and Gooden can be traded as an expiring. That’s the insurance policy, of course; Plan A has this thing working, with Gooden and Erick Dampier splitting time at center depending on the foe, Gooden doing his damage as a “free spirit’’ respecting the fact that Carlisle is holding the reins.
The quote. “Drew brings a lot of needed color to what we do.'' – Mavs GM Donnie Nelson

ERICK DAMPIER

Strengths. He truly is a fine rebounding center (if you give him the minutes) and gets most of his points that way. And when he shoots – as rarely as that is – he makes it more frequently than anybody in the league. (You can count on Damp to make about 63 percent of those layups, dunks and putbacks of his.) He’s a legit shot-blocker and shot-contester (a grossly underrated NBA stat); Dallas’ defense counts on him to protect the rim, an especially important task when mediocre defenders like Dirk and Terry are on the floor.

Weaknesses. The 6-11, 265-pound Damp is built nasty, but he’s a mellow fellow. That’s not changing. Nor is his lack of hands, which makes him a liability on the rare occasions when the Mavs try to feed him an entry pass.

The plan. If he was at all capable on offense as anything but a screen-setter and garbage man, he could stay on the floor at game’s end. Instead, he’ll be part of a game-long platoon system. He’ll start against “the monsters,’’ he’ll spot-sub depending on matchups in most games, and he’ll be a situational sub late in games when the Mavs are holding the lead. Free agency is coming, and to Dampier that can mean a big payday. To the rest of us, that means the $13 million “DUST Chip.’’

The quote. “People who truly know the game, they know what I contribute.’’ – Erick Dampier.

KRIS HUMPHRIES

Strengths. He’s big, he’s tough, he’s athletic, he’s muscular, he’s smart and he can score. Now, he’s not great in any of those departments, but he’s good enough that the Mavs think they might’ve gotten a steal with him thrown-in to the Marion deal. Toronto almost never played him last year, despite the fact that what he’s done this fall in preseason games – serve as a nightly double-double threat – was there for the taking in Toronto, when if you expand his minutes out to full-time he looks like a … you guessed it … double-double threat.

Weaknesses. While there is on-paper reason to believe he can be a fine defender, he hasn’t shown that in his career. He certainly seems to be in love with his jumper, so it’s hoped the free reign he was allowed in the preseason was an experimental thing. He’s been a poor free-throw shooter, though I bet assistant Gary Boren gets that fixed here.

The plan. Well, Kris’ original plan didn’t even include renting a Dallas apartment; that’s how sure he was that he’d be shipped out of town by now. Instead he’s supplanted James Singleton as Dallas “energy big,’’ and is right around the ninth guy in the rotation. He truly does have an athletic pedigree (Dad was a football star and Kris used to swim against Michael Phelps) so maybe he just needs the right spot, the right coach and a little playing time to be Dallas’ next Brandon Bass or Dallas’ next Eddie Najera.

The quote. “I will be a plus on the floor.’’ – Humphries.

JAMES SINGLETON

Strengths. He was dutiful in responding to the Mavs’ request that he beef up in anticipation of being asked to play more 4 this year … and then the Mavs acquired both Marion and Gooden and that was about the end of him getting to play much 4. Singleton – nicknamed “James Double-Doubleton’’ around here for his ability to achieve those numbers on the rare occasions when he’s called upon – has the versatility to play all three front-court spots. He is more beefy, but he retains the ups that provide occasional eye-popping moments.

Weaknesses. At his best, he’s a member of “The Glue Crew,’’ a get-along guy who understands that his journeyman status makes him mostly practice fodder. My sense is that he doesn’t enjoy that job as much as he did a year ago; in preseason games, he seemed a bit lost. I think his confidence has taken a blow: He didn’t earn any free-agent interest and once he did commit to coming back, he found his role being filled by Kris Humphries.

The plan. You start penciling in the rotation … the first five … the first seven … the first nine … and Singleton isn’t there. The good news is that he got this far by being a fighter, and that instinct will hopefully fuel daily battles with Kris Humphries for that slot on the totem pole. That fight should benefit both backups.

The quote. "During last season, I played everything from the 2 to the 5. I want to be able to help in any area.'' -- Singleton.

TIM THOMAS

Strengths. After all these years, he remains as smooth an offensive player as ever when it comes to his speciality: Stroking the long ball. Last season he hit 41.3 percent of his 3s, putting him right up there with Dirk Nowitzki himself in terms of being a big-man shooter. He’s also like Dirk in his pick-and-pop abilities; he’ll always get his shot off there. Thomas is astoundingly consistent; he has the ability to glide through games, no matter the situation, at the same relatively high level.

Weaknesses. Thomas “plays small.’’ At 6-11, he isn’t a shot-blocking threat or, in comparison to his 6-10 height, much of a rebounding threat. There are on-the-court stats from last year, but according to the Eye Test, he’s never seemed very interested on the defensive end. He’s certainly possessive of a certain “attitude’’ – Mavs fans know this – but he is often accused of playing soft.

The plan. My contention is that even when he’s healthy (he’s recovering from knee surgery now), Thomas is at best this team’s 11^th man, an emergency/situational player who might play some 4 and even some 5 in a pinch. At 33, he can still shoot it, and on a minimum-wage contract, his presence is all-reward/no-risk. … even if there is no reward at all.

The quote. "With all the weapons we have here, I'll do whatever they want. If they need me to cheerlead, I'll cheerlead.'' -- Thomas.

Part I of our two-part series, Player-By-Player Analysis: The Backcourt, is here.

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1014am oct 27 2009